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Democrat Josh Turek wins Iowa Senate race, defeating Republican Ashley Hinson

Turek, a state representative and Paralympic medalist, takes retiring Republican Sen. Joni Ernst's seat in a state Trump won by 13 points in 2024.

16 news outlets reported this
Liberal8 outletsA backlash against Republicans over costs and TrumpCenter3 outletsThe projected result, vote shares and the pollsConservative5 outletsHinson's loss as Trump's tariffs and war bite
Published 3 min read
Overview

Democrat Josh Turek won Iowa's U.S. race on Tuesday, defeating Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson. The Associated Press called the race at 11:35 p.m. Eastern, with Turek ahead 50.8% to 46.1%. CNN, NBC and Decision Desk HQ also projected him the winner.

Turek, a state representative and Paralympic medalist, is the first Democrat elected to the Senate from Iowa since 2008. He will take the seat of retiring Republican Sen. Joni Ernst, who did not seek re-election. Trump had endorsed Hinson and carried Iowa by 13 points in 2024.

Polls before election day had shown a tight race between the two. Rising costs, Trump's and the Iran war's effect on fuel prices put Republicans on the defensive in the state. Hinson had called Turek "too liberal for Iowa."

Axios says the win seals Democratic control of the Senate. CBS News says it brings Democrats one step closer to the majority. CBS also reports that Democrat Rob Sand won Iowa's governor's race.

Key figures
  • 50.8% to 46.1% Turek over Hinson when the AP called the race — Washington Examiner
  • $124 million spent by Democrats and outside groups for Turek, per Ad Impact — The Daily Beast
  • more than $118 million spent by Republicans and backers for Hinson, per Ad Impact — The Daily Beast
  • 13 points Trump's winning margin in Iowa in 2024 — CBS News
  • 51st seat Washington Examiner's count for Democrats in the Senate — Washington Examiner

Three sides of the story

Liberal8 outlets

A backlash against Republicans over costs and Trump

Axios calls it a "major upset" and says the win delivers Democrats control of the Senate. In its words, the result points to a backlash against Republicans in a state Trump carried easily two years earlier. The Daily Beast, under the headline " Candidate Collapses in Red State Meltdown," calls it a "dramatic victory" and ties it to soaring costs from the Iran war and tariffs.

It recounts Hinson's Epstein files video and her votes against war powers resolutions, and cites Ad Impact spending of $124 million for Turek against more than $118 million for Hinson. The Guardian leads on a "significant victory" in a Republican-led state and links it to soybean markets hurt by tariffs, fuel and fertilizer prices, and Iowa's cancer rates. It also notes a late Turek ad on transgender issues that LGBTQ+ groups condemned.

CBS News projects the win, says Turek campaigned on working across the aisle, and says the race proved more competitive than expected. It adds that Hinson called for the war to end but opposed efforts to rein in war powers.

Center3 outlets

The projected result, vote shares and the polls

Newsweek reports that Turek defeated Hinson in a closely watched contest, with CNN and NBC calling it Tuesday night. As of 11:38 p.m. ET, it says, CNN had Turek at 50.8 percent to Hinson's 46.1 percent. It lists seven polls taken from late September through October and says Democrats need a net gain of four seats for Senate control.

The result, it says, brings them closer to that goal. The Seattle Times gives a short report: Turek won election Tuesday, flipping a Republican-held seat, and the Associated Press declared him the winner at 11:35 p.m. EST. It notes that Trump endorsed Hinson and that Ernst is a retiring two-term senator.

The Hill's headline says Turek "flips Senate seat in Iowa." It cites a Decision Desk HQ projection, says his party is closing in on a Senate majority, and puts his share at just over 51 percent.

Conservative5 outlets

Hinson's loss as Trump's tariffs and war bite

The New York Post's headline says Turek "dunks" Hinson "to give Democrats Senate control." It describes him as a centrist "common-sense populist" who agreed with Trump on some issues.

It says Hinson ran as a "minivan-driving mom" but voters were turned off by rising costs and tariffs, and it quotes Trump calling Turek a "woke, far-left radical." The Washington Examiner reports the AP call and says Turek's win gives Democrats the 51st seat. It says Iowans soured on Trump after fuel price rises and tariffs, and notes Hinson criticized his deal with Russia to import diesel.

The Daily Caller's headline says the "Trump-Backed Republican" was defeated. It reports NBC's call, embeds Hinson's September statement calling for the war to end, and notes backlash from LGBTQ+ groups to a Turek ad. Townhall reports Decision Desk HQ's 11:16 PM call and includes Hinson posts calling Turek "too liberal for Iowa."

Where outlets disagree
All sources: 16 articles from 16 outlets

Liberal (8)

Center (3)

Conservative (5)

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