Tens of millions of Americans have voted early ahead of Nov. 3 midterms
Time reports registered Democrats cast about 45% of early ballots and Republicans 31% in states with party registration, but an expert cautions it cannot predict results alone.
Election Day for the is Tuesday, Nov. 3, and is open in nearly every state. The University of Florida's Election Lab counted nearly 33 million early votes on Tuesday, per Time, and more than 39 million by Wednesday afternoon, per ABC News. In the 27 states that register voters by party, Time reports Democrats made up about 45% of early voters and Republicans about 31%.
That measures registration, not how people voted. Michael McDonald of the University of Florida, who runs the Election Lab, tells Time that early data cannot alone predict the result and that Election Day tends to favor Republicans. CBS News says Democrats have an edge in the race for and that control could turn on a few states, from Alaska to Maine.
Newsweek reports Texas early voting is up 74 percent from the same point in 2022, with the Senate race there close in polls. The New York Post reports early voting in New York City is up nearly 72% from the last midterm. The Federalist's poll analysis concludes Senate control is "very much up in the air."
Three sides of the story
Liberal12 outlets
Left-leaning outlets frame the final week around Democratic enthusiasm and public discontent. CBS News offers a campaign roundup. It says Democrats have an edge for the House and that an unpopular war with Iran and high gas prices have made the Senate map difficult for Republicans.
It also covers Ramaswamy's absence from an Ohio rally and Murkowski's backing of a Democrat for Alaska governor. Time reviews early-voting data and quotes Michael McDonald, who says early votes cannot alone predict the result, and Bernard Fraga of Emory, who says Republicans who voted in 2024 are so far staying home. It also cites polls on Democratic enthusiasm and Trump's 32% approval in a Reuters/Ipsos survey.
ABC News analyzes Texas and Georgia early votes. It finds Democrats modeled to be getting higher turnout among less-frequent voters, while noting the data does not show who anyone voted for. The Independent publishes a Michigan State University survey on financial strain and a sense of national decline.
- CBS News: Midterm campaigns make final push as early voters hit the polls
- Time: What Early Voting Data Is Showing About the Midterm Elections
- ABC News: Early vote one week out shows Democratic enthusiasm in Texas, Georgia: Analysis
- The Independent (US): Two-thirds of Americans say their country is in decline as midterms approach
Center4 outlets
Newsweek's two articles center on turnout in specific Senate contests. On Texas, it reports 4,538,667 early votes as of Oct. 26, nearly 24 percent of registered voters and up 74 percent from 2022. It lists totals for the ten highest-turnout counties and several polls with margins of error, including a RealClearPolitics average and a Fox News tie.
It quotes University of Kentucky professor D. Stephen Voss, who says close races draw voters and Democrats may hold an enthusiasm advantage. It also reports $490.4 million in Senate ad spending, Elon Musk's donations to pro-Paxton groups, and posts from Paxton and Talarico. On Alaska, it reports more than 58,000 ballots cast and a pace near the 2024 record.
It describes the lawsuit over the second Dan Sullivan, Republican allegations, Peltola's denial, and Trump's Truth Social post. It says it asked the campaigns for comment.
Conservative6 outlets
The Federalist focuses on whether Senate polls can be trusted. It says Democrats hope the polls are right and Republicans hope they are wrong, because Republicans suspect conservatives answer pollsters less often. It then compares final RealClearPolitics averages with results in Trump-era Senate races across 13 competitive states and adjusts the current averages by each state's past error.
Polls underestimated Democrats in New Hampshire and Minnesota and Republicans in North Carolina, Michigan, Iowa and Maine. After adjusting, it says New Hampshire, Georgia and North Carolina are almost surely Democratic, while Republicans lead six races, two by under a point, and control is "very much up in the air." The New York Post reports New York City early voting is up nearly 72% from 2022.
It says that likely helps Democrats, and it cites Siena and Marist polls showing Gov. Hochul leading Republican Bruce Blakeman by 14 and 11 points.
Which side made the stronger case?
All sources: 36 articles from 22 outlets
Liberal (23)
- ABC News: WATCH: State of the race with 4 days until midterm vote
- ABC News: Early vote one week out shows Democratic enthusiasm in Texas, Georgia: Analysis
- Axios: The bizarre twist shaking up Alaska's Senate race and catching Trump's ire
- CBS News: How Alaska's ranked choice voting system works
- CBS News: 10/30: The Takeout with Major Garrett
- CBS News: Midterm campaigns make final push as early voters hit the polls
- HuffPost: New Voting Habits Emerge As Democrats Surge In The Early Vote
- HuffPost: Check Out Alaska Ballot And See Why Sullivan Controversy Is A Nonissue
- MS NOW: As controversy looms in the Alaska Senate race, the state’s voting system is on the ballot
- NBC News: Early midterm voting data shows enthusiasm ahead of election day
- NPR: ICE activity is surging ahead of midterms. So is voter turnout.
- NPR: Alaska's all-important Senate race is roiled by a report on alleged spoiler candidate
- NPR: Support for Trump among white evangelicals has plummeted, polls reveal
- PBS NewsHour: Will ranked choice voting affect timing of Maine and Alaska's Senate race results? Here's what we know
- The Independent (US): Two-thirds of Americans say their country is in decline as midterms approach
- Time: What Early Voting Data Is Showing About the Midterm Elections
- Time: Polls Point to a Blue Wave. Here's Why Republicans Say They're Wrong
- Vox: The case for a little election optimism
Center (6)
- BBC News: More than 43 million ballots cast so far in midterms early voting surge
- Christian Science Monitor: Tale of two Sullivans: Alaska Senate race spotlights legality of political tricks
- Christian Science Monitor: Young men have soured on Trump and the GOP. But will they vote on Tuesday?
- Newsweek: Early Voting in Alaska on Pace to Hit Record Amid Two Dan Sullivans Fiasco
- Newsweek: What Record-Breaking Texas Early Voting Says About Talarico vs. Paxton Race
- The Wall Street Journal (news): In Alaska, high prices for diesel and home heating oil are driving voter anger at President Trump and incumbent Republican Sen. Dan S. Sullivan, making the Senate race in this red state one of the most competitive in the country
Conservative (7)
- Breitbart News: 'The View' Hosts Blast Alaska Democrats' 'Shady Tactic' Putting a Second Dan Sullivan on the Ballot
- Fox News: Report on alleged ‘second Dan Sullivan’ effort emerges after nearly 1 in 10 Alaskans voted
- National Review: Ranked-Choice Voting Is a Rank Idea
- New York Post: NYC early voting jumps 70% from last gubernatorial election
- The Daily Wire: ‘The View’ Doesn’t See A Problem With Democrats Cheating in Alaska
- The Daily Wire: What The Law Can Actually Do About The Other Dan Sullivan
- The Federalist: What The Midterm Senate Polls Won’t Tell You (And Where They Might Be Wrong)
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