NBC poll ranks economy as top midterm issue as inflation outpaces wages
NBC's final poll puts Trump's approval at 40%, and a majority are dissatisfied with their personal finances for the first time in the poll's 30-plus years.
Americans vote in the elections on Tuesday. In an NBC News Decision Desk poll, the economy ranks as the issue that matters most to voters, and a majority express deep frustration with President Donald Trump on that issue. The New York Times says its polls suggest the economy is the biggest motivator of voters' choices and that Democrats are more trusted to fix things.
In NBC's final poll, presented by political analyst Steve Kornacki on Meet the Press, Trump's approval is 40%. Kornacki said dissatisfaction with personal finances has reached a majority in that poll for the first time in over 30 years of the survey. Prices have climbed since the war with Iran began.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, reached 3.7% in September, and for six months it has outpaced wage gains. NBC reports that gas, diesel and rates are all well above their levels before the war. Stocks have done well, and NBC says the S&P 500 reached record highs in recent weeks.
- 3.7% September inflation, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics — NBC News
- 3% wage growth from a year earlier in September — NBC News
- Well above $4 current average price of a gallon of regular gas, per AAA — NBC News
- 40% Trump's approval in NBC's final poll — Daily Caller
- 51% dissatisfied with their personal finances in NBC's poll — Daily Caller
Three sides of the story
Liberal7 outlets
Prices outpacing paychecks explain voters' economic frustration
NBC News opens with Ronald Reagan's question, "Are you better off than you were four years ago?", and uses five charts to explain why the economy weighs on voters. It points to its own Decision Desk poll, where the economy ranks as the top issue. Inflation has outpaced wage gains for six months, NBC says, and in September it reached 3.7% while wages rose 3% from a year earlier.
Regular gas was $2.98 before the Iran war and is now well above $4, and diesel is well above $6. The 30-year mortgage rate is well above 7%, and home prices are up 57% since January 2020. NBC also covers the gains: the S&P 500 is up more than 26% in Trump's second term, and homeowners hold over $35 trillion in equity, which for most people is "still money on paper."
The New York Times reports that its polls suggest the economy is the biggest motivator of voters' choices and that Democrats are more trusted to fix things.
Center2 outlets
Why voters feel gloomy despite strong economic measures
A UPI opinion column by a scholar of financial markets and global inequality starts from a debate over whether mere "vibes" explain voter gloom, or whether long-used economic measures miss something fundamental. The writer notes that growth and low unemployment look strong while consumer sentiment slips. The column cites a Pew survey in which 84% of registered voters call the economy very important, including 82% of Republicans and 88% of Democrats.
It says Republican pessimism is narrowing the gap with Democrats. The writer argues sentiment and inflation data have become untethered and says inflation-adjusted wages are now falling, which "could help explain" the darker outlook. Inequality is offered as "one possibility": the richest 10% account for half of consumer spending, and the writer says total spending figures fail to reflect typical consumers.
The column adds that voters may judge the economy as a whole, not only their own circumstances.
Conservative4 outlets
Trump's low approval and Democrats' own baggage
The Daily Caller leads with Trump's low approval and its link to economic sentiment, relaying NBC analyst Steve Kornacki's presentation of the network's final poll. It reports Trump's approval at 40% and 73% dissatisfied with the effects of the affordability crisis. It quotes Kornacki saying the 51% dissatisfied with personal finances is the first majority in over 30 years of the poll.
The Caller also reports that respondents favored Republicans on government corruption and immigration, and Democrats on the Iran war and inflation. It quotes Kornacki on ground gained by Democrats on issues that were once Republican strengths. The closing passage turns to the Democrats.
Kornacki says they are "only 29% favorable" and asks whether the party has "more baggage" that could keep it from capitalizing on voters' dissatisfaction with Trump.
Which side made the stronger case?
For drivers, regular gas is well above $4 a gallon, according to AAA, compared with $2.98 before the Iran war. NBC News reports diesel is well above $6 and says higher diesel costs typically spill into the rest of the economy. For home buyers, Freddie Mac data cited by NBC show the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is well above 7%, after dipping below 6% before the war.
All sources: 15 articles from 13 outlets
Liberal (9)
- Al Jazeera English: Who decides the US midterms?
- Al Jazeera English: US midterms 2026: What polls reveal about Democratic, Republican voters
- Axios: What we're watching on election night for energy
- Business Insider: Gas prices could shape the midterms. See the US states where prices have risen the most.
- MS NOW: U.S. consumers confront the highest gas prices ever on an Election Day
- NBC News: The state of the U.S. economy ahead of the midterms in five charts
- Semafor: Gas on the ballot in US elections
- Semafor: The US midterms decide who gets blamed for the economy that’s coming
Center (2)
- Newsweek: Poll Of The Day: What Decided Your Midterm Vote More Than Anything Else?
- UPI: Are American voters actually gloomy about the economy, or is something else going on? (opinion)
Conservative (4)
- Daily Caller: Americans’ Disapproval Of Trump, Economy Loom Over Midterm Elections
- Fox News: The economy is on the ballot. 3 charts reveal the reality voters face as they head to the polls
- The Washington Times: Gas prices still above $4 per gallon on average, but heading in right direction on Election Day
- Washington Examiner: Gas prices in Trump’s second term hit record high for any presidency
The morning edition by email
One email a day: the three main stories, each with its three sides. No ads. Unsubscribe with one tap.
A Telegram channel is coming soon.