Florida votes in midterms as DeSantis warns of weak Republican turnout
Axios says Republicans' early-vote lead is smaller than in the past two general elections, and a Times/Siena poll has Donalds narrowly ahead for governor.
Florida votes on Tuesday, Nov. 3, in the elections, and Republicans are worried about turnout. Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is term-limited, said at a Sunday event in West Palm Beach that if voters stay home, the results could surprise his party. In a podcast interview he said Democrats have "more momentum" and called the Iran war a "big, big drag" on Republicans.
In a video shared by the Florida , he urged Republicans to vote, saying, "Do not give the Democrats an inch." Axios reports that Republicans led Democrats in early ballots by 2.8 percentage points as of Saturday afternoon. Newsweek, citing FreshTake, a University of Florida source that compiles county turnout data, reports a Republican lead of about 7.4 points among early and Election Day turnout at 3 p.m. ET Tuesday.
The governor's race to succeed DeSantis pits Republican Rep. Byron Donalds against Democrat David Jolly, a former Republican congressman. A New York Times/Siena poll released Oct. 28 had Donalds ahead 48 percent to 44 percent. In the race, Republican Sen. Ashley Moody faces Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon.
- 2.8 percentage points Republican lead in early ballots as of Saturday afternoon, per Axios — Axios
- about 7.4 points Republican lead in turnout as of 3 p.m. ET Tuesday, per FreshTake — Newsweek
- 48 percent to 44 percent Donalds over Jolly in the Times/Siena poll of Oct. 28 — Newsweek
- $176 million raised by Donalds, against $28 million for Jolly, per Axios — Axios
- as many as 500,000 votes possible Donalds deficit entering Election Day, per internal estimates shared with Axios — Axios
Three sides of the story
Liberal2 outlets
Republican jitters over turnout and Democratic momentum
Axios opens with a GOP elder's words, "We're white-knuckled," and builds the piece on early-vote numbers. Republicans' lead in early ballots stood at 2.8 percentage points as of Saturday afternoon, it says, even with an 11-point registration edge. Axios counts 15 counties where Democratic ballots already exceed the party's full 2022 early and mail-in total, against four for Republicans.
Internal Democratic and GOP estimates shared with Axios, it reports, show Donalds possibly entering Election Day down by as many as 500,000 votes. It also gives the counterweights: Republicans outnumber Democrats by 1.5 million, and state GOP chair Evan Power says, "We always win Election Day." Axios adds that Republicans have "quietly fretted" about racism hurting Donalds and Nixon, who are both Black.
The New York Times headlines Democrats "Gain Momentum" in the governor's race and reports DeSantis among the Republicans raising concern about slow turnout in their ranks.
Center2 outlets
Turnout data, polls and DeSantis's eve-of-election warning
Newsweek's turnout report says Florida turnout "appears to be more friendly to Democrats" than in 2022 or 2024, while noting that Republicans still had an edge, about 7.4 points at 3 p.m. ET Tuesday, per FreshTake. It quotes Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman describing a "modest but clear" Democratic enthusiasm.
A second Newsweek piece centers on DeSantis's podcast interview, in which he cites gas prices, the Iran conflict and immigration enforcement. It sets his remarks beside final national forecasts, Florida polls with Donalds and Moody ahead, and an spokeswoman's view that polls "underestimate support for Republicans." The Seattle Times, running a report from Coral Gables, opens on Jolly telling a church rally, "We're going to win this race!"
It says Democrats there are upbeat about the governor's race, quotes DeSantis on what could happen if voters stay home, and notes Florida has not elected a Democratic governor since 1994.
Conservative1 outlet
DeSantis's call to vote and back Amendment 3
Breitbart News leads with DeSantis's video message, headlined "Do not give the Democrats an inch." It quotes him saying, "They get an inch, they'll take a mile," and asking Republicans to vote "up and down the ballot." The piece gives space to Amendment 3, which DeSantis urges a yes vote on, citing a near-doubling of local property tax revenues in seven years and saying it "creates a path to full elimination of property taxes" for homesteaded Floridians.
Breitbart describes Nixon as a Democratic Socialists of America member who denies being a socialist, and says Jolly, a former Republican, shares many socialist positions despite having no formal DSA status. It closes with Florida Division of Elections figures: about 3.3 million , nearly 1.5 million from Republicans and 1.2 million from Democrats, with Democrats edging Republicans among mail voters.
Which side made the stronger case?
Floridians also vote on Amendment 3, a property tax measure. Breitbart reports it would expand the homestead exemption for non-school taxes in two steps, from roughly $50,000 to $150,000 in 2027 and then to $250,000 in 2028. DeSantis says it brings "immediate and meaningful relief" and that Amendment 3 "creates a path to full elimination of property taxes for homesteaded Floridians."
All sources: 6 articles from 5 outlets
Liberal (2)
Center (3)
- Newsweek: Voter Turnout Shows Democrat Enthusiasm in Trump's Home State of Florida
- Newsweek: DeSantis Breaks With Trump Day Before Midterm as Democrats Surge
- The Seattle Times: In Florida Governor’s Race, Democrats ‘Feeling Like This Is Our Moment’
Conservative (1)
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