Democratic wins in statehouses open a path to a national popular vote for president

States in the compact hold 222 of the 270 electoral votes needed, and conservative groups are almost certain to bring legal challenges, AP reports.

13 news outlets reported this

Liberal5 outletsDemocratic statehouse wins open a path, with hurdles Center4 outletsPath to 270 electoral votes and its obstacles Conservative4 outletsA Democratic bid to bypass the Electoral College

ABRAnews EditorialPublished Nov 11, 20261 min read

Overview

Democrats won full control of state government, meaning the governor's office and both legislative chambers, in six states in the elections: Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. That opens a path to sidestep the without a constitutional amendment. The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact binds states to give their electoral votes to the candidate who wins the most votes nationwide.

It takes effect only once members hold 270 electoral votes. Eighteen states and the District of Columbia have joined, holding 222. Pennsylvania and Michigan plus two of Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada would be enough.

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro said the national popular vote "makes sense," and Wisconsin Gov. David Crowley said of the Electoral College, "We can do away with it." Tyler August, the Republican leader in the Wisconsin Assembly, said the plan would "disenfranchise Wisconsin voters." Hans von Spakovsky of the conservative Advancing American Freedom said he thinks the would rule that a compact cannot do this.

To apply in 2028, states holding at least 270 electoral votes must join by July 20 of that year. AP reports conservative groups are almost certain to bring legal challenges.

Key figures

222electoral votes of the states already in the compactThe Boston Globe
270electoral votes needed to win the presidency and activate the compactThe Boston Globe
71electoral votes of the six states Democrats now fully control, per APThe Boston Globe
283electoral votes if all five new Democratic-run states joined, per the TimesThe Seattle Times
63%Americans who said they prefer a national popular vote, in a 2024 Pew poll cited by compact backer RosenstielThe Seattle Times

Three sides of the story

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13 news outlets reported this

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Liberal5 outlets

Democratic statehouse wins open a path, with hurdles

The Boston Globe runs an AP report saying the midterms "upended national politics" and may now change how presidents are elected. It quotes Democratic governors: Wisconsin's David Crowley saying "We can do away with it," Pennsylvania's Josh Shapiro saying the idea "makes sense," and Arizona's Katie Hobbs declining to say, citing the cost of living.

It also quotes Notre Dame law professor Derek Muller, who is skeptical and expects constitutional challenges, and Wisconsin Assembly Republican leader Tyler August, who says it would "disenfranchise Wisconsin voters." PBS NewsHour asks "Farewell to the electoral college?" and notes that 18 Democratic-run states have already joined the compact. The New York Times asks whether the path would work and says obstacles such as legal challenges would loom.

Center4 outlets

Path to 270 electoral votes and its obstacles

The Seattle Times carries the same AP report, which says the compact would "effectively neuter the Electoral College" if enough states join, and that supporters of the plan are optimistic after the Democratic wins. It also runs a New York Times piece that opens with Republicans twice winning the presidency while losing the popular vote, under George W. Bush and Trump. That piece counts five new Democratic-run states and 283 electoral votes if all joined.

It then sets out obstacles under separate headings: court challenges, population shifts, states leaving, and a pact that could end up helping Republicans. It quotes two law professors who differ. Samford's William Ross says the pact most likely violates the compact clause.

Florida State's Michael Morley says it would probably survive that but would run afoul of state constitutions. A Times analysis says the current member states and the five new Democratic-run states could have 275 electoral votes in 2032, instead of 283.

The Seattle Times: Democrats have gained control in more states. That could change the way the US elects its president
The Seattle Times: Democrats Now Have a Path to Sidestep the Electoral College. Would It Work?

Conservative4 outlets

A Democratic bid to bypass the Electoral College

Fox News leads with the midterm sweep opening a path to bypassing the Electoral College by 2028. It quotes compact backer Patrick Rosenstiel, who is confident, and election law expert Hans von Spakovsky, who says "They can't use a compact to, in essence, change the Electoral College." The Blaze calls the compact a "decades-old scheme" and quotes Trent England of Save Our States, who says voters should be "very worried about this attempt to hijack the Electoral College."

The Washington Examiner reports that Democrats "eye opportunity" and that lawmakers are looking toward 2027. It quotes Jason Snead of the conservative Honest Elections Project, who warns of "chaos" in court fights before 2028 if states pass the compact in 2027. A second Washington Examiner piece argues that without the Electoral College small states would be "completely ignored."