ABRAnews Open the whole story. Sign in
US Politics · 2026 midterm elections

Vance blames Iran war for GOP midterm defeat as Republicans reassess 2028 field

Democrats won both chambers of Congress, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich says the nomination race is "wide open," and DeSantis gains in prediction markets.

JD Vance in 2026
JD Vance in 2026. Photo: Emily J. Higgins, Public domain, Wikimedia Commons
15 news outlets reported this
Liberal8 outletsVance's path murkier, 2028 field wide openCenter3 outletsDefeat complicates Vance's decision on runningConservative4 outletsWho blames whom, and how 2028 hopefuls react
ABRAnews EditorialPublished 1 min read
Overview

Democrats won control of both and the in Tuesday's elections, and Republicans are now debating who could lead the party in 2028. On Wednesday, Vice President JD Vance wrote on X that "The reason we lost is the war," referring to the war with Iran. Former Newt Gingrich wrote that the scale of the defeat makes the nomination race "wide open."

Vance remains the front-runner in prediction markets, but Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has gained. Kalshi has DeSantis at 19 percent, up 14.6 points, and Vance at 27 percent, according to Townhall. Secretary of State Marco Rubio denied reports that he would resign to prepare a run, telling the New York Times he will not talk about 2028.

DeSantis told CNN he will "be a free man" in January. Asked about Vance's plans, Trump said "Maybe he won't run." On Wednesday, CNN reported that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who faces criticism over the war, could face an vote in the House.

Key figures
  • at least 54Democratic Senate seats, per the Washington ExaminerWashington Examiner
  • north of 250Democratic House seats, per the Washington ExaminerWashington Examiner
  • 27 percentVance's nomination odds on Kalshi, per TownhallTownhall
  • 19 percentDeSantis's nomination odds on Kalshi, up 14.6 points, per TownhallTownhall
  • 34 percentVance's nomination odds on Polymarket, per The IndependentThe Independent

Three sides of the story

8Liberal3Center4Conservative

15 news outlets reported this

Tap a color or swipe sideways to switch sides.

Liberal8 outlets

Vance's path murkier, 2028 field wide open

The Daily Beast leads with Republican fear that the scale of the defeat means looking beyond Trump's circle for a 2028 candidate, citing Semafor's talks with half a dozen Republicans. One strategist calls Vance "the biggest loser Tuesday night." The Independent leads with DeSantis as an "unlikely" leading candidate after a Polymarket surge, then profiles contenders, putting Vance at 34 percent and Rubio at 17 percent.

It adds that Axios reports Vance warned Trump the war was "highly unpopular and could cost Republicans the election." Yahoo News says Vance's path now looks "much murkier." It quotes Gingrich on a wide-open race and Iowa conservative leader Bob Vander Plaats, who expects a field that could rival 2016.

It still calls Vance the clear front-runner, citing donor ties and Turning Point USA backing. The Daily Beast says some Republicans are said to be seeking to impeach Hegseth over the war, and Yahoo cites a CNN report that he could face a House impeachment vote.

Center3 outlets

Defeat complicates Vance's decision on running

The Journal says the Republicans' heavy midterm loss makes Vice President JD Vance's choice on whether to run in 2028 harder. It says some people close to him fear any candidate would struggle to prevail in a presidential race two years out.

Conservative4 outlets

Who blames whom, and how 2028 hopefuls react

The Washington Examiner opens with a "shockwave" through the party that could upend the 2028 field, then goes hopeful by hopeful. It reports pundits blaming Trump's focus on ballroom and Reflecting Pool renovations over gas and diesel prices tied to the Iran war. It quotes Vance's post, then replies from Ari Fleischer, who blames the cease-fire, Marjorie Taylor Greene, who says "Good start JD," and Chris Christie, who says Vance "has no credibility."

Cruz calls the result "a blue tsunami." Rubio tells the New York Times, "I literally will not talk about 2028 anymore." Townhall leads with DeSantis's rise on Kalshi and Polymarket, with Vance still ahead at 27 percent on Kalshi.

It quotes DeSantis saying gas is "higher because of this conflict." Townhall adds that prices keep shifting and the election is two years away.

What a side did not mention
  • Conservative outlets did not mentionSome Republicans reportedly seek to impeach Hegseth over the Iran war, and CNN reported a possible House vote Reported by The Daily Beast, Yahoo News
All sources: 24 articles from 15 outlets

Liberal (13)

Center (4)

Conservative (7)

2026 midterm elections
  1. Democrat Scott Colom's lead grows in Mississippi Senate race as count continues
  2. Jon Stewart says Democrats must end seniority system and faults Schumer after midterm wins
  3. Vance blames Iran war for GOP midterm defeat as Republicans reassess 2028 fieldThis story
  4. Mississippi Senate race stays undecided as vote count continues
  5. Trump says he may make a few Cabinet changes after Republican midterm losses
All stories on this topic
House of Representatives

The lower chamber of Congress: 435 members elected every two years, with more seats for bigger states. It is the chamber that can impeach officials.

All terms →
Senate

The upper chamber of Congress: 100 senators, two per state, elected for six years. It confirms judges and ministers and approves treaties.

All terms →
Midterm elections

US elections halfway through a president's four-year term. The whole House, a third of the Senate and many governors are elected. In 2026 Election Day was November 3.

All terms →
Speaker of the House

The leader of the House of Representatives, chosen by its members, usually from the majority party. Second in line to the presidency after the vice president.

All terms →
Impeachment

A formal accusation against a top official, up to the president, voted by the House of Representatives. Only the Senate can then remove the official, with two-thirds of the votes.

All terms →
Wall Street

A street in New York where the stock exchange stands. In the news it means US financial markets and the big banks and investment firms as a whole.

All terms →
GOP

“Grand Old Party”: a nickname for the Republican Party, used since the 1870s. GOP and Republican mean the same thing.

All terms →